Equation #1 · Chapter 1

Extinction Rate R_ext

R_{ext} = \frac{Lines_{generic}}{Lines_{authentic}} \times AI_{velocity}

Extinction Rate

R_ext · Ch 1

How fast generic work goes extinct. Above 5 you're landfill the moment tooling catches up.

Worked example — A four-person internal tools team

Last quarter they touched about a hundred files at a regional insurer. Roughly 85 were CRUD screens, form validation and REST wrappers — the kind a model writes correctly in one shot. About 15 encoded the underwriting rules nobody outside that building understands.

It came out at 11.3. Red — the book's line is 5.

They stopped hand-writing the CRUD and moved two of the four engineers onto turning the underwriting rules into a tested service. Next quarter: 40 generic, 45 authentic, same AI velocity — 1.8, green. Same team, same headcount. Different denominator.

Your turn — change one number

Generic lines (a model regenerates in seconds)85

Authentic lines (carry human judgment)15

AI velocity (treat as gravity)2

Result11.33

Red. Landfill trajectory. Everything generic is already gone.